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Sale Watch: 150 DTC brands, tracked every hour
Which direct-to-consumer brands counter Amazon Prime Big Deal Days, when do they start, and how deep do they go? Every hour we read each brand’s public product catalog and homepage banner and keep the record.
Brands on an event sale now
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Median discount
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Most active category
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First to blink
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Brands running an event sale, every hour
A brand counts as running an event sale when its homepage banner carries an offer, or when its share of products on sale is at least 10 points above that brand’s own baseline. Times in US Eastern.
Show the numbers as a table
Who sells hardest, by category
Left: the share of each category’s brands running an event sale right now. Right: the median discount on the products that are marked down at those brands.
Who blinked first
The brands whose sales moved furthest from their own normal, in the order they started (the first time we saw them switch from no event sale to one). One column per hour; red means an event sale was on. “early” marks brands that started before Prime Big Deal Days. Brands that were already on a sale at their very first check are left out, because we cannot tell when they began. Scroll sideways for the whole timeline.
What just happened
All brands
How this is measured, and what it misses
- What we read. Once an hour, for each brand, the public Shopify product catalog (the US storefront) and the homepage. No logins, no scraping of anything a shopper cannot see.
- “On sale” means a variant has a compare-at price above its current price. We count a product as marked down when at least one available variant is, and ignore gift cards and discounts above 90% (almost always a data error).
- Sitewide discount codes are invisible in catalogs. A “20% off everything with code X” sale changes no product price. So we also read the homepage announcement bar as a second signal. It can miss bars that are drawn by JavaScript after the page loads, so a brand can run a code-only sale that we never see.
- Baseline. Each brand is compared with itself: its baseline is the median share of its catalog on sale across all checks before Prime Big Deal Days began (Oct 6, 07:00 UTC). A brand that always has 40% on sale is not “having a sale” at 40%.
- Event sale. A brand counts as running an event sale in an hour when its banner carries an offer, or when its share of products on sale is at least 10 points above its baseline. A banner that already carried an offer for most of the baseline period (a standing free-shipping code, for example) does not count by itself, with one exception: a banner that names Prime (“Prime Day”, “Big Deal Days”, a PRIME code) always counts, standing or not.
- Median discount is the median markdown across a brand’s products that are on sale, then the median across the brands being described. It is not a basket price.
- Coverage. Prime Big Deal Days run from Oct 6, 07:01 UTC to Oct 8, 06:59 UTC. We later mark Black Friday (Nov 27) and Cyber Monday (Nov 30). A missed hourly check is carried forward for up to three hours; after that the brand drops out of that hour.
- Brands we could not track because their catalog is closed to the public or has more than 1,500 products: Gymshark, Skims, Bombas, Vuori, Yeti, Ruggable, Everlane, Alo Yoga, Fashion Nova, Reformation and Parachute.
- This is a sample, not the market. 150 well-known US brands on Shopify, six categories. Treat it as a pulse, not a census.
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